Transactions on Data Analysis in Social Science

Transactions on Data Analysis in Social Science

Identifying and Ranking the Drivers of Population Ageing in Tehran: A Futures-Studies Approach Using Delphi and MARCOS

Document Type : Original Article

10.22034/tdas.2026.256133
Abstract
Background: Population ageing is one of the defining demographic trends of the twenty-first century, and Tehran is particularly exposed to it because of falling fertility, rising life expectancy, rapid lifestyle change and complex economic conditions. Objective: To identify and rank the drivers of population ageing in Tehran from a futures-studies perspective. Method: A three-stage exploratory design was used. Initial drivers were identified through a scoping review, 15 semi-structured expert interviews and the STEEPV framework. They were refined in a two-round Delphi survey (36 experts in round 1, 31 in round 2) with a predefined consensus criterion, which expanded the list to 69 drivers in eight domains and retained 66. Ten senior experts then scored the 66 drivers from 1 to 10, and the drivers were ranked with the MARCOS multi-criteria method. Findings: The highest-ranked drivers were the mortality rate (f(K) = 0.805), lifestyle (0.794), the fertility rate (0.792), social inequality (0.777), economic inequality (0.771), and urbanization, migration and health technologies (0.770 each). Economic drivers had the highest average utility, followed by values and ecological–demographic drivers; technological and political drivers ranked lowest. Expert agreement was significant but weak (Kendall’s W = 0.218, p < .001), although the ranking was stable when single experts were omitted. The 36 highest-ranked drivers were selected for cross-impact analysis. Conclusions: Population ageing in Tehran arises from the interaction of demographic, economic, social, cultural, spatial and institutional factors, and responding to it requires integrated, anticipatory governance, a sustainable pension system, support for families and an age-friendly city.
Keywords

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Volume 8, Issue 2
Spring 2026
Pages 101-118

  • Receive Date 03 November 2025
  • Revise Date 25 December 2025
  • Accept Date 02 January 2026